November 2013: When Moore’s Law was published, its model of exponential rates of change seemed unbelievable. Today it still guides the semiconductor sector. The accelerating global pace of change today is analogous to Moore’s law. Since the turn of the century, emerging markets have moved center stage, the digital revolution has arrived, social networks have become ubiquitous, a sharing economy has been born, scientific advances such as mapping the human genome have changed our lives, and the voice of the people has reinvented markets and overturned governments.

For organizations and individuals the opportunities and challenges that a Moore’s Law of change offers are vast. Look for continued radical changes in retail and social networks and value chains being reconfigured as connectivity and technology redistribute industry. “Hubonomics” will shift how and where we operate and consume. The latest scientific advances will make the impossible, possible. Perhaps the biggest issue looking forward will be to understand and manage the contradictions these changes entail.

The challenge for leaders, however, is not accurately predicting the future.  Rather it is about first having a broad and open understanding of the trends reshaping the world, second an informed point of view on the future and what it means for your organization and third, and most importantly, taking actions today to begin to prepare.  Leaders who continue to act as if the old rules apply will find their organizations left behind, as Kodak and Nokia demonstrate. How long does to take to build new capabilities or business models? To change mindsets about consumers and building relationships with them?  To change organizational culture?  In a world of accelerating change, the biggest risk for leaders is not being wrong in their point of view about the future, but beginning to take action too late.

So where should leaders look today?  In our forthcoming Global Trends Report 2014, The Fieldbook, we highlight 10 trends that business leaders need to focus on today. These will be the subject of our next two briefings. In this briefing we focus on the first five trends and December’s will focus on the next five trends to watch.